نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشجوی دکتری آینده پژوهی دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Demographic changes in the Islamic Republic of Iran during the past three decades have been caused by important demographic factors such as fertility, mortality and migration. Under the influence of social, cultural, economic, technological and political factors, these changes have created many challenges that will threaten the country's national security and defense and military capabilities. Therefore, the current research was carried out with the aim of predicting demographic changes in the Islamic Republic of Iran with a defense-security approach in the horizon of 2042. The research is fundamental with a qualitative approach. The statistical sample of the research includes 23 university professors, experts and senior managers in executive and decision-making jobs in the demographic field. The findings of the research showed that 38 driver forces have an effect on demographic changes, and among them, by holding two Delphi rounds and obtaining the opinions of experts and placing opinions with the help of the Wilson matrix, 11 drivers with the highest probability of impact were identified, which include the increase in the marriage age of young people, to Postponing childbearing after marriage, changing women's attitudes towards birth control, preventing births in families or forced control, women's employment in men's jobs, technological developments, women's birth control training, changing the lifestyle of families, high rate unemployment, lack of housing and increased migration from the countryside to the cities. Also, five surprising factors were identified, which included the change in the cultural and social values of families, social networks, increasing the level of university education, increasing the number of self-headed households, and the desire to emigrate from Iran.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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